The global AI race has brought an attractive change in the appearance of DeepSeek in China, which is advertised by some of the potential destructive people in the AI hardware space. With speculation swirling, stock investors, analysts, and ideological leaders are working on critical questions. Is Deep Seek a true threat to the NVIDIA and the larger American AI industry, or is this an exaggerated news amplified by stakeholders?
The news that DeepSeek’s model exceeded O1 of Openai in a specific inference test, caused a fierce debate in the AI community. This development has a significant meaning in the AI market and may affect stock prices of companies such as NVIDIA and other AI -related companies.
I am not a famous expert in deep technology or AI hardware, and I will prefer this. I do not claim that I have a decisive answer. Instead, I suggest a way to find the answer -not by endless theory, but by observing how the stock market reacts. The stock market, which has collective wisdom and the ability to handle information, often functions as the closest to the true detector.
Explore context, evaluate important factors during play, and develop a logical framework to evaluate the importance of DeepSeek’s appearance.
Landscape: NVIDIA’S MOAT vs. Deepseek’s promise
NVIDIA has been a leader who has long been a leader in AI hardware, and has dominated the market using the GPU and CUDA software eco -systems. The ecosystem is sticky. Developers, hyper -color, and enterprise clients are deeply established on the platform and create a significant switching cost. This is different from Apple’s ecosystem, in which faithful users and interconnected services create a barrier at the exit.
On the other hand, DeepSeek is reported to provide more efficient AI solutions. Some of the people drew are that DeepSeek can be a “cheap smartphone” of NVIDIA’s “iPhone”. In the smartphone industry, the possibility of obtaining cheaper alternatives is particularly in emerging markets, and the market share has definitely changed. But did this confuse Apple’s stock prices and faithful user base? Not significant. The same applies to NVIDIA, depending on whether DeepSeek can duplicate NVIDIA’s ecosystem or simply compete at price and performance.
Role of market reaction: Find the answer to the price
This is where the stock market appears. The best way to measure the effects of deep seeks is to observe NVIDIA’s stock prices, not just speculative opinions. The stock market is often a better truth terraner than a single analysis. It reflects the collective emotions notified from analysts, insiders, and countless external factors.
What to see:
Response to the news
Since DeepSeek’s news has broken, NVIDIA’s stock has not responded dramatically. After the news was announced, APX actually increased by 2.5 %. Looking at the NVDA stock price from the next day to the end of the week from the next day, APX increased by 2.5 %. Needless to say (crash …?), This serious lack of stock suggests that the market has not yet regarded DeepSeek as an important destructive person. If so, we will expect a sudden and sustainable price decline. Who remembers other cases, such as Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal or FB stock immediately?
Profit as a catalyst
NVIDIA’s future income report is extremely important. Be especially careful about the competitive risks of AI space, especially in the management explanation. If DeepSeek is a true threat, it may be displayed in NVIDIA’s guidance or performance, especially data center segments. I propose to observe NVIDIA’s stock price. NVIDIA’s stock price is when the news broke up to two weeks of profit. During this period, it should provide enough data to evaluate whether Deepseek has a concrete impact, even if it is not spoken. I know the price and I know much better than you or anyone else.
Interpretation of the price action of future NVIDIA profits (scheduled for February 26, 2025): That may tell me
NVDA’s stock price is your best guide to “truth”
Scenario 1 Report for future NVIDIA revenue reports: Stock rise or stable
If the NVIDIA shares are rising or staying within the current range, the market may indicate that DeepSeek is not a major destroyer. Perhaps the NVIDIA ecosystem is too established, or DeepSeek solutions do not provide sufficient differentiation. Other factors, such as AI demand growth and new NVIDIA’s new black welete chips, may exceed the threat of competition.
Scenario 2 report of future NVIDIA revenue report: stock decrease
If the NVIDIA shares decrease, the reason is that you need a thorough investigation. Will it decrease due to bottle necks for Blackwell’s delivery, macroeconomic pressure, or wider market trends? Or do you reflect the legitimate concern about DeepSeek? Analysts need to scrutinize the explanation of revenue, the data center revenue tendency, and changes in market share. It is important to avoid jumping to the conclusion without understanding the fundamental reason for the decline.
Unknown: Factors and its weight
One of the issues when analyzing inventory movement is that you cannot know the relative weight of all factors affecting stock prices or those factors. As we know, we may hear a wonderful explanation, but we do not affirm. The profit report often shows this. Companies can exceed the estimated value of revenue and EPS, but the stocks decrease. Analysts scramble to explain why. Was it a slow growth, weak guidance, or other reasons? In reality, the stock market processes countless variables at the same time, not all of them. The granular variables and their weight will never be known to us. But I know the price.
The same principle is applied here as well. Even if the NVIDIA stock remains stable, DeepSeek is a growing threat, but it may not be so important enough to exceed other factors. Conversely, if inventory is reduced, Deepseek may not be the main cause. This complexity is not a hurry to judge based on short -term movements, but to emphasize the view of stock prices over the overall and time passing.
Find the back of Deepseek: Trust the price, not the news
The possibility of Deepseek, which confuses the NVIDIA and the United States AI industry, is an unresolved issue, but the best way to find the answer is to talk to the stock market. See the NVIDIA price action. Until two weeks after the news broke, no future revenue has occurred. If the stock remains stable or rises, DeepSeek may not be a major threat. If you decline, dig deeper into the reason, regardless of whether it is associated with DeepSeek or other factors.
The price action may function as a “truth detector”, which is certain. The market may not be immediately priced, and short -term movements can be affected by noise, guessing, or stakeholders (for example, a shortseller that amplifies the fear of Deepseek). 。 As usual, pay attention and keep multiple interpretations open. But in any opinion, especially in price than your opinion.
Finally, I know the price. Please follow the money. If you follow the price, you will approach the truth.
So far, this is the simplest price chart of NVDA shares in the past 100 days. Have you yet found a panic from the “true machine”? You can decide on your own to see Deepseek News related panic. But wait two weeks later to solve the “truth” for the next profit.
NVDA transaction range: $ 127- $ 152 (100 days). Weekly chart.
Disclaimer: This article is only for information provision and should not be interpreted as an investment advice. Before making an investment decision, always conduct your own survey and consult with an expert.
