December 10, 2024
Yoru Intelligence analysts see rapid growth in communications and automotive lidar applications in China.
The global market for semiconductor lasers is expected to grow significantly over the next five years, from approximately $3 billion in 2023 to $5.3 billion by 2029.
This is according to a new report from French market consultancy Yol Intelligence, whose analysts expect applications in communications infrastructure and automotive lidar (particularly in China) to drive expansion.
AI data demand
The report, titled “Illuminating the Future: Semiconductor Lasers Driving Innovation,” suggests that communications-related deployments will account for nearly half of the global market by 2029, or $2.56 billion. .
This is due to the current boom in demand for high-speed links in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and long-distance subsea links between data centers, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% between 2023 and 2029. This is because it is predicted. Important element.
Rapid growth will see communications and infrastructure replace the consumer sector as the single largest application area, and the market value of consumer applications will remain roughly flat over the same period.
Consumer deployments (such as inside smartphones for facial scanning security) will continue to be the second largest application group, but will decline slightly from $1.62 billion in 2023 to $1.75 billion in 2029. It will only increase.
fragmented sector
Industrial applications involving high-power sources driven by semiconductor lasers in fiber-based or direct diode configurations account for the next largest market. The Yole team expects to grow at a CAGR of 4% to reach $471 million in 2029.
The “Automotive and Mobility” market, which started from a much smaller base, showed the fastest expansion rate, growing from just $32 million in 2023 to $191 million in 2029, at a CAGR of 35 Equivalent to %.
Yole analysts note that the overall market ecosystem remains highly diversified and fragmented, with vastly different commercial priorities and technical requirements for lasers used in different market segments. .
“The expansion of applications using lasers, the move towards energy efficiency, compact size and precision, the growth of integration with multiple technology platforms such as silicon-on-insulator (SOI), silicon nitride, indium phosphide, thin films, etc. “We see trends in film lithium niobate (TFLN) shaping the future of the semiconductor laser market,” they said.
This year, two TFLN-focused startups, Zurich-based Lightium and Harvard University spinout HyperLight, have raised venture funding and their technology will likely be used for even faster links in TFLN. It is aimed at optical integrated circuit (PIC) design. Future AI data center.
chinese rider
Ali Jafar, senior analyst for compound semiconductors (the basic light-emitting material that forms the basis of most laser chips) at Yole, said the slowdown in the consumer segment is due to recent changes in requirements for optical sensing applications. suggests.
In stark contrast, Jafar expects the use of similar semiconductor lasers in automotive applications to expand significantly, which he says will be driven primarily by the introduction of lidar in China.
Dozens of companies in the US and Europe are developing automotive lidar technology, but while Chinese providers such as Hesai and RoboSense have emerged as market leaders, sales are generally still slow to take off. Not yet.
Hesai’s latest sales figures suggest the company is on track to ship nearly 500,000 sensors this year, making it the first automotive LiDAR company to turn a profit in the final quarter of 2024. I’m predicting.
The company recently signed major supply deals with major domestic automakers Great Wall Motors and Changan Motors, as China’s auto production grows at the apparent expense of many Western car companies.
• Click here for more information on Yole’s semiconductor laser report. In addition to Jaffal, attendees at next month’s SPIE Photonics West event will hear from Yole analysts Axel Clouet and Martin Vallo. They will discuss trends in the machine vision industry on January 30th at the Expo Stage at San Francisco’s Moscone Center.
