Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs for AI and HPC faced a slight delay due to packaging yield degradation issues that required redesign, but this did not appear to impact demand for these processors. According to questions from Morgan Stanley analysts (via Barron’s) to the company’s management, the next 12 months’ supply of Nvidia Blackwell GPUs is sold out, which is an improvement over the Hopper GPU supply situation several quarters ago. It is said that they are imitating it. As a result, Nvidia is expected to gain market share next year (via Seeking Alpha).
Morgan Stanley analysts shared insights from a recent meeting with NVIDIA executives, including CEO Jensen Huang. During these meetings, it was revealed that orders for the next 12 months of Blackwell GPUs were already sold out. This means new customers who order today will have to wait until late next year to receive their order.
Nvidia’s traditional customers (AWS, CoreWeave, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, etc.) have purchased all the Blackwell GPUs that Nvidia and its partner TSMC can produce in the coming quarters.
Such overwhelming demand could lead to Nvidia gaining market share next year despite increased competition from AMD, Intel, cloud service providers (which offer their own services), and various smaller companies. It may indicate that.
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said, “We expect Nvidia’s solution to be the largest user of custom silicon with such a sharp increase next year that Nvidia will indeed capture AI processor share in 2025.” In our view, this is likely,” Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore wrote. Note to client. “Everything we heard this week confirmed that.”
Packaging issues with Nvidia’s B100 and B200 GPUs have been resolved, allowing Nvidia to produce as many Blackwell GPUs as TSMC. Both the B100 and B200 use TSMC’s CoWoS-L package, but it remains to be seen whether the world’s largest chip contract manufacturer has enough CoWoS-L capacity.
And with demand for AI GPUs surging, it remains to be seen whether memory manufacturers will be able to supply enough HBM3E memory for cutting-edge GPUs like Blackwell’s. Notably, Nvidia has not yet certified Samsung’s HBM3E memory for Blackwell GPUs, which is another factor impacting supply.
