Artificial Intelligence (AI) Technology Giant Nvidia (NVDA) -0.83%)) After the market closed, we plan to report results for the fourth quarter (ends January 26th) of fiscal year 2025 (ends January 26th) on Wednesday, February 26th.
Nvidia’s upcoming revenue releases are perhaps the most anticipated of the revenue season this quarter. That’s because the company is simply widely regarded as a pioneer or indicator for the red-hot AI space, both in the natural high-tech sector and, to some extent, even the entire market.
Additionally, investors are looking forward to what management is saying about Chinese startup DeepSeek. On January 27th, NVIDIA shares fell 17% due to concerns about a potential slowdown in spending on graphics processing unit (GPU) chips and related technologies. The sale was triggered by the announcement that Deepseek trained open source AI models significantly less than ChatGpt owner Openai and others spent training the models.
Many market watchers have expressed doubts about the truthfulness of some of the Deepseek statements, but some investors probably still worry about the topic despite Nvidia stocks being largely recovered. I’m holding it. The shares traded at $142.62 prior to the sale of Deepseek and ended on February 19th at $139.23.
Nvidia’s fourth quarter guidance and Wall Street estimates
Metric Q4 Accounting 2024 Results NVIDIA Fourth Quarter 2025 Guidance NVIDIA Forecast Wall Street Forecast Wall Street Forecast Wall Street Forecast Growth Revenue
Data Sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal 4th quarter ended on January 26th, 2025. *Calculations by the author based on metrics provided by management.
Nvidia’s earnings beat track record is amazing
We reviewed Nvidia results for the last 18 quarters, or four and a half years. This data dates back to the quarter that ended in late July 2020. We also separated results from the past four quarters.
Revenue for the period * Results related to Wall Street consensus are: Revenue beat size (average) Revenue beat size (range) 16/18 beats for the last 18 quarters = 89%
11%*
5% to 32%*
Recently, I have reported 4 quarters
4/4 beat = 100%8.8%5.7% to 11.4%
Data Source: Nvidia. Calculations by the author. *Revenue in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest integer.
Nvidia has a great track record of exceeding Wall Street revenue estimates, so it seems to be a high probability. That average revenue beat is a little smaller in percentage over the past four quarters than the past 18 quarters.
Releases stock price movement after Nvidia’s earnings
Investors should focus on Nvidia’s results and guidance, and do not be overly concerned about how stocks will move after earnings announcements. For long-term investors, being too concerned about daily price movements is a waste of time and energy. (An eye-opening Tidbit: saving 10 minutes of wasted time a day will be around 61 hours a year.) If Nvidia continues to stir up strong results years ago, and possibly to do so. It seems to be in place. It must rise naturally.
That being said, I know that many people still want to see this data, so here’s it:
Quarterly Ending Revenue Size %Q4 Accounting 2024 Late January 2024 12%16.4%Q3 Late October 2024 19%
(2.5%)
Q2 Accounting 2024 32% in late July 2023
0.1%
Q1 Late April 2024 Late April 2023 18%
24.4%
Data Source: Nvidia Revenue Report, Yahoo! Finance, and YCHARTS. *Rounded to the nearest integer.
The above data is four-quarters of the 2024 fiscal year and three-quarters of the 2025 fiscal year reported so far. This is the high-tech generation AI behind Openai’s ChatGPT chatbot and other new chatbots, which boosted the company’s results.
Note that there is no even a modest correlation between the size of the revenue beat and the price transfer of stocks the next day. There are three main reasons for this dynamic:
Guidance could affect stock prices, if not greater than the current quarter results. Nvidia stocks do not move in vacuum. The broader industrial factors and overall market dynamics can affect the movement. Some investors earn profits after better than expected and put downward pressure on the stock price.
Should I buy NVIDIA shares before or after reporting revenue?
If you are a long-term investor, if you buy NVIDIA shares before or after reporting quarterly results, you have to make a big difference in the long term. (Indeed, NVIDIA shares rose 24.4% in May 2023 after the results were announced for the first quarter 2023. However, this magnitude of post-revenue release movement is rare. Nvidia has Not only does it crush revenue expectations, it also issues guidance that is much higher than Wall Street had expected. Short time frame.)
But if you’re the type of person who makes what you consider to be a “wrong” timing decision, for example, misses 10% profits every day, or incurs 10% losses every day, then I There is a suggestion for you: Consider buying half the shares before and after the release of revenue.
