Written by Gregg Wartgow, Special to AEM —
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) over the past few years is undeniable, and its advances are poised to revolutionize businesses, economies, and societies in the coming years.
“We’re now building machines that have the same intellectual capabilities as humans,” said Steve, who has more than a decade of experience in artificial intelligence leadership, including as Head of Go-To-Market at artificial intelligence research company OpenAI. said Zach Kass, a prominent AI futurist who has worked on . According to Kass, the “AI revolution” started with text-to-image and text-to-video tools and has now evolved to include text-to-vector (or CAD) and even text-to-scent. I’m doing it. “Technology is always expanding, and we’re really looking at a multimodal future,” Kass said.
In his current role as general counsel, Kass advises high-profile organizations such as Coca-Cola, Boeing, and even the White House on AI strategy. He spoke about the future of AI at the AEM annual conference in November. What that future ultimately looks like will largely depend on how society chooses to leverage AI.
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As Kass explained, some elements of society are worried about how the spread of AI could put workers out of work, and that perhaps people will be more interested in virtual reality than actual physical reality. I am concerned that this could lead to a more inhumane world. Some wonder if AI will lead to an intellectual de-evolution of humans.
Perhaps the biggest concern is what happens if the AI fails. The unintended consequences of machine learning from machines not being trained on what not to do are real. “The good news is that the smartest people in the AI field are focused on this coordination problem,” Kass noted.
Another good news is that the cost of implementing AI has decreased significantly as technology advances. The development of the next iteration, such as the evolution from ChatGPT 3.5 to ChatGPT 4.0, requires significant investment. However, as everyday organizations began to take advantage of modern tools, costs have come down dramatically.
“ChatGPT 4 cost $60 to run per million tokens (units of data processed by the AI model),” Kass shared as an example. “It’s about $4 today. This is important because when the price of an important resource falls this quickly, you have an economic explosion. When something very important becomes cheap, very good things happen. ”
Kass envisions three stages of integration in what he calls the AI revolution. Phase 1, the extended application phase, is already well underway. This is where organizations and individuals begin to leverage AI, either as standalone applications or as tools embedded in everyday software.
Phase 2 is expected to begin rolling out in 2027 and usher in the era of autonomous agents, where goals and tasks are assigned to machines. These machines perform their tasks across a variety of applications. “It’s like a working Siri,” Kass said with a laugh.
Phase 3 is expected to begin around 2035, when AI will move towards more natural language operating systems and communication with AI will become very similar to human-to-human communication. Kass is most excited about this phase because it opens the door to AI adoption by the masses, including those who are not tech-savvy.
“The big problem with today’s digital divide is that machines are not taken for granted and many people are left behind because they don’t know how to use the technology,” Kass said. “Phase 3 will change that. The accessibility of this technology will increase significantly.”
With that in mind, the world will soon have access to fully integrated, unmetered intelligence.
“We’re entering the next renaissance,” Kass said. “We are about to see a huge expansion in human potential, so one of the questions we have to think about is how do we leverage machines in the next renaissance?”
“We are now building machines with intelligence on par with humans. Technology is constantly expanding, and we are truly looking at a multimodal future.” — AI Futurist Zack・Scasses
The pace at which the AI revolution unfolds will depend on two things. The first is pushing the limits of technology in terms of what we can ask of machines. Great people are already working on this and are making great progress. Second, and more importantly, there are social thresholds that determine what society wants machines to do.
“In fact, it is the threshold of society that most determines our future,” Kass says.
Throughout much of history, technological and social thresholds have largely coincided. However, as society evolves and technology becomes more sophisticated, society has put more guardrails in place to reduce perceived risk when introducing new technology. Now that we have entered the 21st century, it may be difficult to change the threshold of society.
“So the future is not about what machines can do, but about our tolerance for failure points in machines,” Kass said. “Risk adjustment can be difficult. The question is not whether the AI can do something well, but whether the AI will be penalized if it breaks.”
It is important to consider how AI can enrich society by increasing productivity, increasing joy, and reducing suffering. Focusing on benefits can help change social boundaries. It all adds up to a huge expansion of human potential.
Kass said there is already evidence of that expansion. Data shows that each person in the United States can do 70% more today, based on GDP, than they did in 1995. “I think over the next five years, it will be 100 percent,” Kass surmised. “In 10 years, it could be 1,000%. I’m not exaggerating.”
The potential for scientific progress is as promising as the productivity gains. As Kass pointed out, AI is already helping discover new antibiotics, among other embryos. “I believe that AI will eventually be able to solve problems such as quantum computing, fusion energy, and even biology and life sciences such as cancer,” Kass said. “This will probably happen within the next 30 years.”
With the proliferation of AI in daily life, people can get a huge amount of their time back, and they might even start spending that time on things that make their lives more enjoyable. This can be perceived as a risk, especially for those who consider their job to be the most important thing they do. Kass said it’s important to keep things in perspective.
“When most people think about the idea of AI taking their jobs, they think about the economics of how they’re going to make a living,” Kass says. “That’s misguided. Every industrial revolution has had a huge positive economic impact. Wages, productivity and safety rise. Unemployment falls. But it’s still a happy place. Some people cannot see the economic benefits because they cannot overcome the psychological damage caused by unemployment.”
Kass said that personally, it is important to “learn how to learn” in an AI-driven future. “Don’t think that what you learn today will make you tomorrow, and don’t think that the skills you have today are enough,” Kass says.
As a company, it’s equally important to recognize that tomorrow is likely to be different than today. This type of environment favors companies that actively embrace adaptability.
Finally, it helps to reflect on what AI can’t do and leverage that to future-proof your own brand. Kass calls this “optimizing for the most human qualities.”
“AI is good at computational tasks, but it’s bad at emotional tasks,” Kass said. He shared a personal story about how his father, an oncologist, was recently honored not only for his medical expertise, but also for the impact he had on his patients on a personal level.
“The best thing people can do is practice courage, curiosity, wisdom, and empathy,” Kass advised.
When these incredibly powerful human characteristics are combined with innovative technologies like AI, a very bright future is envisioned.
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